“When will…or when did…the Phoenix real estate market bottom out?”
It’s a question we’ve been asked a lot lately, and I’ll be honest, it’s a tough one to answer. Not because I don’t know. More so, because there are several key indicators of a market bottom, and they are rarely spotted at the same time.
To see what I’m talking about, take a look at this chart, which has been re-posted with permission from The Cromford Report.
When I looked at that chart for the first time, two years jumped out at me: 2008 and 2011.
In 2008, we saw the first of the market bottom indicators. In January of 2008, the listing success rate hit a low of 20.4%. In other words, of all the homes that were taken off the market that month, just 20.4% were taken off because they actually sold. That same month, the number of sales per month hit a low of 2,517. Then, not surprisingly, shortly thereafter, the number of sales per year (which was actually measured as a rolling-12-month-period) hit a low of 48,495 in June of 2008.
From 2008 to 2010, we saw a few ups and a few more downs, bumping along the bottom…
In 2011, we’ve seen more indicators of a market bottom. In January of 2011, the average list price per square foot hit a low of $126.62. In other words, some sellers have actually started to list their homes for more than the most recent sales prices in their communities. And, even more excitingly, the average monthly sales price per square foot hit a low of $78.76 in September of 2011. This means, not only have sellers started to ask for more in 2011, buyers have agreed to pay more…slightly more, that is.
So, when will the Phoenix real estate market bottom out? The chart above suggests we’ve already seen the “last of the lows.” The chart above suggests the Phoenix real estate market has been improving in several ways for over three years now. But hey, what does a chart full of carefully-calculated statistics know, right?
**If you would like a chart, similar to the one above, prepared for your own city or zip code within the Greater Phoenix Area, just post a comment below, send us an email, or, give us a call the old fashioned way! We would love to hear from you.**